Visa Uncertainty Is Changing How Students Choose Where to Study

New IDP Emerging Futures research reveals that visa concerns are now influencing international students' decision-making earlier than in the past. And, if obtaining a visa for a preferred destination seems too difficult, uncertain, or costly, some students say they will simply decide not to study abroad.

The results of the ninth Emerging Futures survey suggest major implications for governments and institutions alike. They show a distinct shift in students' approach to choosing where in the world to study.

IDP notes: "While employability, post-study work opportunities, and affordability remain core drivers, EF9 shows students are now screening options more proactively, often ruling out destinations sooner due to visa costs, policy uncertainty, or perceived barriers to entry."

Demand Remains High for Big Four Destinations

The survey was conducted between early-March and late-April of 2026 among over 5,800 prospective and current students in 118 countries.

The survey found that Australia (21%), the UK (19%), and the US and Canada (14%) remain the preferred countries in which to study. A main reason for this is that students believe there will be a high return-on-investment (ROI) from studying in those countries, especially with regards to career prospects.

Visa Barriers Impact Perceived ROI

Despite their appeal, Big Four destinations are currently associated with uncertain, unfair, or increasingly restrictive immigration policies. Developments such as these are jeopardising the perceived ROI of studying in a Big Four country. If a student is doubtful they can pay for or obtain a visa, and if they see evidence of post-study work rights shrinking, they are naturally more likely to think twice about their decisions.

IDP notes: "The survey findings] reflect the cumulative impact of increasingly restrictive visa policies, and act as a warning sign to all destinations that sustained policy tightening can rapidly shift student preferences."

Simon Emmett, Chief Partner Officer of IDP Education, called for collaboration across the sector and emphasised the collective need to "lift confidence in international education through greater transparency and accountability, better data on outcomes and visa trends, and enhanced compliance and early warning signals that protect students and support sustainable growth."

The IDP research underlines the importance of strong communications, website content, and social media posts clarifying visa information for international students. In an era where students' confidence in traditional study abroad destinations is under pressure, there is no room for error in these communications.

Source: [ICEF Monitor